Case study  /  outbid.lol Still running as you read this 24 August 2026

A developer in Germany spent $1.80 on a domain and made $181,804 in four days.

The post that started it was unremarkable: a developer saying, on a Tuesday evening, that he had bought a domain. This document works out how that became the number above, and whether it was luck or something repeatable.

$1.80Domain
3h 33mTeaser to launch
1,229,731Visitors
$181,804Paid in

Jonathan Wilke sells a Next.js starter kit to other founders and had about 19,000R followers on X. He registered the $1.80R domain, built a single page while making dinner, and posted seven times in three and a half hours before switching it on. It has taken $181,804R from 1,229,731R visitors since.

The page does one thing. It lists websites in a ranked column and your position is whatever you paid. No auction close, no refund, nothing to win except the row you are standing on. By the fourth day 1,188C companies had paid, the top row cost $15,000C, and roughly 254O copies of the site had appeared, 394O by the next morning.

Check it yourself before you read another line

  1. The site outbid.lol The live board: ranks, prices and a running visitor counter, public, no account needed.
  2. The launch post x.com/jonathan_wilke/status/2090184058810544467 19 August 2026, 23:08 CEST, the exact minute the board opened, with 3.1 millionO views on it.
  3. His own tally x.com/jonathan_wilke/status/2090548427616555154 Day one, in his words: 200,000 visitors, $21,499 taken, an offer of $100,000 to sell.

So how did he actually do it? Here is the whole thing, minute by minute, from three and a half hours before anyone could buy.

Read to 24 August 2026. The counters have moved since and will again. This is not a scoreboard: it takes apart the mechanic, and the mechanic does not move.

OObserved. We read it off the page ourselves. The mark opens what we read.
RReported. Published by the site or the founder, not audited. The mark opens the claim.
CCalculated. Computed by us from the full capture. The mark opens the method.
IImage. Read off a screenshot he posted, not off a page. The mark opens the post.
Case study  /  outbid.lol Contents 24 August 2026

What you are holding

Twenty-two pages, four parts, and one thing
that exists nowhere else.

Between 19 and 23 August 2026 we captured the whole board: all 1,188C rows, with rank, price, category and reported clicks. Part II is built entirely on that file, and the file ships with this document.

What this is for

The totals on page 1 are why anyone opens a document like this and the least useful thing in it: true on 24 August 2026, already wrong. What does not go stale is the mechanic. Part I is the post sequence that built the audience; Part II is what the board says about who paid and what they got. Chapter 11 lists what we could not verify and what we printed wrong.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 1 19 August 2026

Chapter one

Three hours, thirty-three minutes

From an idea posted to an empty timeline to a live product taking money. Each post quotes the one before it, so the whole run reads as a single visible ladder instead of separate announcements.

  1. 19:35Posts the seed, with nothing built yet. I have a very simple idea that I'm going to build and launch tonight. Stay tuned.8,800views41 likes
  2. 19:48Registers the domain. cheapest domain I ever bought. lol9,866views22 likes, 6 reposts
  3. 20:14Posts a video of himself building it. Building while making dinner. Who said men can't multitask10,995views21 likes
  4. 20:18Names the stack in public. Actually my first project to be hosted on @cursor_ai Origin. Let's see what this thing can do.28,329views31 likes, 8 reposts
  5. 22:15Starts the countdown. Launching in the next 30 minutes...28,824views25 likes, 3 reposts
  6. 22:25Then hands the audience a decision to make, which is another reason to come back. Should I do a live stream when I launch?2,762views
  7. 22:55Last post before the payload, and the second most seen of the whole evening. Almost there... Just checking the Polar web hook setup312,724views24 likes
  8. 23:08 Live. Aaaaaaand we're live! outbid.lol. No ads. No API keys. No revenue sharing. Just outbid your competitors to rank #1 and consider marketing done for today 3,127,871views1,341 likes, 749 reposts

Times are CEST, his local time. Every time here was decoded from the id of the post itself, which makes it exact to the second rather than read off a label. Both the time and the reach figure open the post they came from. Reach was read on 23 August 2026 and only ever grows: the launch post has passed 3.3 million views since. Recovering the ids corrected four of these times, one by 72 minutes, and one reach figure that had been taken from the wrong post.

What this changes

The ladder is the mechanism, not the product. Seven posts across three and a half hours meant the launch landed on an audience already watching, and the post before the payload alone reached 312,724 people. If you copy one thing here, copy the run-up, not the leaderboard.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 2 19 to 20 August 2026

Chapter two

Launch night

Two and a half hours in which it took its first money, absorbed an accusation of fraud, and acquired the story it would be told with all week.

  1. 23:12Four minutes in, he sets a public break-even bar of three dollars. Every sale after this one arrives with a scoreboard attached. If we can make it to $3 this project is profitable. Got the domain for $1.804,807views16 likes
  2. 23:22The first numbers. Nice, 115 visitors within the first 10 minutes isn't bad for starters8,172views8 likes, 4 reposts
  3. 23:26@jessethanley The first substantial reaction to the launch is hostile, eighteen minutes after it goes live. Scammy campaign.28,274views120 likes
  4. 23:28He answers in ninety-three seconds, in public, without heat. The argument becomes distribution instead of killing the post. What is scammy about this?24,447views12 likes
  5. 23:55@designorant A follower who tried the same thing twenty years ago, and made two dollars, hands him the frame every later write-up would use.28,720views50 likes
  6. 00:01His reply, which is the moment the story acquires its title. Thanks for the boost! What was that million dollar homepage about?23,062views10 likes

What this changes

The hostile reply arrived eighteen minutes in and was answered in ninety-three seconds, publicly and without defensiveness. The two posts together carry 52,721 views, more than any post of the evening except the launch itself. If you launch something that takes money in public, the first accusation is not a crisis to manage quietly. It is free distribution, and only if you answer it fast.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 2 20 August 2026, after midnight

The customers were the channel

Between those rows first place changed hands 6 times, and this is the part that matters: he posted every flip as its own tweet, tagging the company that had just taken the lead.

genseo.co    boostkit.io    rocket.io    elmohq.com    screenies.app    Maileroo.com

A company that has just paid to be first, then named in public, reposts it. Their audience sees it. Some of them bid. Every purchase generated its own advertisement, paid for by the buyer and distributed through the buyer's own following. The board needed no marketing budget because the people buying from it were the marketing.

Nothing in that loop requires a leaderboard. It requires a purchase that is public, a winner who can be named, and a seller willing to narrate the change out loud while it is still happening. The leaderboard supplies all three cheaply, which is why it worked, but it is the loop that is worth copying and it is not the part anybody copied.

  1. 01:10Names the model that built it. Try Grok 4.6. I think it's one of the best models in terms of design right now. It just built me outbid.lol
  2. 01:13Narrates another change of first place, in the same voice he would use for a football match. And screenies.app steals position #1. How long will it last?

Times are CEST and were decoded from the ids of the posts themselves. Neither of these two carries a public view count.

What this changes

Two hundred and fifty-four boards copied the mechanic within four days and the median one earned nothing. What none of them copied was this: an audience already watching, and a founder narrating every transaction by name while it happened. If you take one thing out of Part I, take the narration. It works without a leaderboard and it costs nothing.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 3 20 August 2026

Chapter three

The first 24 hours

The counter rows carry no minute stamps, because those posts were never recovered. The breakages under them were, and run in the order their ids give. The rest is his posting, verbatim.

The counter

VisitorsMarkerWhat he posted
3,000in under twelve hoursTop bids cross $200, and he ships the first rule change: any rank can now be claimed for a dollar more.
4,500$1,400 takenBuilt outbid.lol yesterday night as a fun project and the site got 4.5k visitors in the first 12 hours and made $1.4k revenue
10,000within twelve hoursoutbid.lol is about to hit 10k visitors within 12 hours since launch
17,000$4,000 takenActually we are at 17k visitors and $4k revenue by now

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own posts, 20 August 2026, verbatim. Open

And at the same time, the breakages

What brokeHis words ViewsLikes
First outageFirst outage on outbid.lol / now it's a real app!10,513O33
Analytics diesfuck I broke the analytics... working on getting this back up9,612O34
He tells the provider@marclou my analytics provider broke under the traffic of outbid.lol119,840O102
The replacement shipssorry for the interruption guys! had switch my analytics out to @DataFast_23,233O69

O  We read this off the page ourselves. Read off each post on 24 August 2026, from the label X attaches to its counters rather than the rounded figure it prints. Engagement only grows, so these are floors. An earlier draft gave the analytics post 349 likes; it has 34. Chapter 11 lists the correction. Open

What this changes

He posted the outage, the broken analytics and the switch as they happened, and the measured answer is that none of it travelled. These are the weakest posts of his day. Three of the four sit between 9,612 and 23,233 views with 33 to 69 likes. The fourth reached 119,840 and still took only 102, and it is a reply to the founder of the analytics company he had just broken, so it borrowed that audience. His summary the same evening took 793,000 views and 2,000 likes. Narrating the failures bought no reach. It bought the thing that makes reach worth having: the account telling you it was going well was the same one telling you when it was not.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 3 20 August 2026

The money events

EventHis wordsReach
A $1,000 bid WTF someone just spend $1000 to get to the top of outbid.lol 43,000 views
272 reposts
An offer to buy it Someone actually offered me $100k for https://outbid.lol He declined. 347,000 views
446 reposts
The second rule ships You can now up your previous bid to get back to the top, by simply paying the difference 46,000 views
710 likes
He promotes his first copy Instead of fighting the first clone, he amplifies it: @julesvcode got inspired by my idea and made a version that focused on mobile apps! Great job 24,000 views
824 likes
24 hours His own summary: 200,000+ visitors, $21,499 made, 1,500+ new followers, analytics broken, $100k offer declined, 3 copycats already launched.s 793,000 views
2,000 likes

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own posts, 20 August 2026. Reach figures read off each post. Open

And the part the first buyers remember

The site did not start as an auction. At launch you bought a spot and, as the earliest buyers understood it, that spot was yours. Once it went viral the model was rewritten so that anyone could displace anyone, with the money going to the founder. The people who had bought under the old rules were never compensated.

The complaint came from @postsbyrhys on 20 Augusts: Originally it was buy your spot and you're locked in with that spot. Now it's someone else can buy that spot (and he gets all the money). Changed it overnight once it got viral. Guy never grandfathered his original buyers.

His two replies do not agree with each other. One accepts it: I'm sorry, I should have been more transparent with this! The other denies the premise: Not really, it's still about outbidding for the rank.

The fossil evidence is still on the board. 212C listings sit at $2I, a price that has not been purchasable since the minimum moved to $5O. Those are the rows bought under the original rules.

What this changes

The rule change is the most transferable warning in this document. It cost him nothing at the time, because the people harmed had already paid and had no leverage, and it is the only thing his own audience is still bringing up days later. If you change the terms of something people have already bought, the cheap moment to make them whole is immediately and the expensive one is never.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 4 23 August 2026, hour 89

Chapter four

Where it stands on day four

Read directly off the site and off his own public traffic dashboard, eighty nine hours after launch.s These are the numbers every other write-up ends on.

1,229,731Visitors
$181,804Paid in
1,188Listings
$15,000Top row

His day three post put it at 1,147,000I visitors, first place at $14,013I, $132,000I taken, 867I products and 190,000I outbound clicks. Thirty hours later the board had grown by another $49,804C and another 321C listings, and first place had moved to $15,000C.

I  Read off a screenshot he posted. The text of that post is four words, Update on day 3. All five figures above are inside the image beside it, so what the link proves is that he published the picture, not that anyone checked the numbers in it. Open

That is the headline, and it is where the coverage stops. The rest of this page is the part nobody else printed.

The same day, the other direction

SignalReadingWhat it means
Visitors, last 24 hours66,900 Down 23% against the previous 24 hours, on his own dashboard
Bounce rate75% Up 6 points. The traffic arriving is less interested than the traffic before it
Time on site0m 57s Long enough to scroll a leaderboard, not to read one
Concurrent visitors656 Against 1,080 reported by an independent write-up at hour 66
Traffic sourceSocial Almost entirely X, direct and social referral. Organic search is a sliver, so there is no floor under the wave

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own public traffic dashboard, read 23 August 2026 at hour 89. Open

What this changes

Every figure in the first row of this page is cumulative, which means it can only go up and cannot fall even after the thing stops working. The numbers that describe the present all point the same way, and they point down. When you read a launch reported in totals, ask what the last twenty-four hours did.

Part I  /  What happened Chapter 4 20 to 24 August 2026

The wave, per hour

PeriodVisitors per hour Revenue per hourSource
Hours 0 to 248,333$896his own 24 hour summary
Hours 24 to 60not measured$3,070$21,499 to $132,000
Hours 60 to 902,700$1,660$132,000 to $181,804
Hour 89 to 902,604one sample, withheldmeasured directly

O  We read this off the page ourselves. Hours 89 and 90 measured directly by us, one hour apart. Earlier rows derived from his own posted totals. Open

Visitors per hour by day. Day one is his claim of 200,000 in
              24 hours, drawn hollow because his own analytics was down that day
              and recorded 900. Days two to five fall from
              4,054 an hour to
              2,561. Days 7, 14, 30 and 90 are empty
              slots with no line drawn through them.

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. Days two to five are his public DataFast dashboard, read on 24 August 2026 off the chart it draws rather than from an export, so treat every bar as good to a per cent or so. Day one is his own claim and is drawn hollow: his analytics recorded 900 visitors that day. The ring on day four is ours, measured off the board. Open

We took a full reading of the board at hour 89 and another at hour 90, so the rate of change is measured rather than inferred from totals, and two instruments that share no code agree. For day four his own dashboard averages 2,694R visitors an hour and our reading gives 2,604C, 3.3%C apart. That is 69%C below day one. The one day that cannot be checked either way is day one itself: it is the day he posted breaking his analytics, and his counter holds 900R visitors for it against a summary claiming two hundred thousand.

One of his claims is checkable and does not hold. On day three he wrote that a new product was being added roughly every minute.s Measured between hour 89 and hour 90, six listings were added. That is one every ten minutes. Either the rate fell tenfold in thirty hours, or it was never a minute.

What this changes

A cumulative counter on a launch page is a ratchet: it is designed so the number can never go down, which is exactly why it stops describing anything once the wave passes. Before you decide this worked, take two readings an hour apart and divide.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 5 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

Chapter five

Who actually paid

Everything in this part is computed from our own capture of the whole board: every row, its price, its category, its reported clicks. That file ships with this document, so the figures can be recomputed rather than believed.

The number in every headline is $181,804R, and it is the least informative true thing you can say about this board. A leaderboard looks like a crowd. This one is not one.

Cumulative share of all money paid in, against listings ordered by
              what they paid. The curve reaches 56.1% within the
              first ten listings and is almost flat from there: by the halfway
              point of the board, 98.7%
              of the money is already in.

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open

Ten listings paid $102,084C of the $181,820C on the board. The other 1,178C paid for the rest.

Run it from the other end and it gets worse. 639C listings, 54%C of the board, paid five dollars or less, contributing $2,506C between them, which is 1.4%C of the total. More than half the names here are, financially, decoration.

The median bid is $5C and the mean is $153C. When the mean is thirty times the median you are not looking at a market but at a handful of large purchases with a long tail of participation attached.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 5 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

What a budget buys, today

Equal bids keep their placement order, so a new bid lands below every listing already sitting at that price. At the entry price that is not a detail.

You payYou land at Which is
$5#948page 19 of 24
$10#429page 9 of 24
$25#245page 5 of 24
$50#169page 4 of 24
$100#117page 3 of 24
$250#76page 2 of 24
$500#48page 1 of 24
$1,000#37page 1 of 24
$3,000#18page 1 of 24

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open

#948 is where five dollars puts you, out of 1,188. The entry price does not buy visibility, it buys page nineteen of twenty-four.

Where the money came from

CategoryDollarsShare of all revenue
AI Agents & Infrastructure$47,69326.2%
SEO & AI Visibility$31,71417.4%
Crypto, Web3 & Investing$19,31010.6%
Business, Finance & Legal$11,0866.1%

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open

What this changes

44% of all revenue came from two categories, AI infrastructure and SEO tooling, which sell to the same person: a founder already sold on buying distribution. The board did not create that demand, it collected one that was there. The question for the next one is whether that buyer is already in your following.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 6 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

Chapter six

The price of being first

The board reports a click count on every listing. Put those against what each listing paid and the question becomes answerable: does spending more actually buy proportionally more attention, or does the top of the board pay a premium for the status of being there.

Every listing that reported a click count, amount paid against
              clicks received, both axes logarithmic. Clicks rise almost in
              proportion to spend across rank 1 to 250, and four listings
              paying five to ten dollars report more clicks than the top row.

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. 29 listings report no click count and cannot sit on a click axis, so they are not plotted. The rank 250 line is ours, not the site's: the next page is why. Open

Across rank 1 to 250, clicks rise as spend to the power of 0.93C, with an r squared of 0.65C. An exponent of one would mean perfectly proportional. In plain terms: roughly one dollar, one click, the whole way up the board. The median listing in that range paid $1.59C per click, and that figure barely moves between the $15,000C top row and a listing at $24C.

This is not what anyone expects, and the next page is where that gets argued. The variance underneath the average is the story here: fuellog.ai paid $51C less than flopay.com and reported 86C times the clicks, 1,805C against 21C. They sit two rows apart, at #10C and #8C, and nothing within two rows of flopay.com reports under 426C. The rank 250 line marks where the counter fails in aggregate, not where it starts.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 6 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

The board charged everyone the same

PositionsListings Median cost per clickStatus
1-1010$1.62measured
11-2515$1.99measured
26-5025$1.55measured
51-10050$1.75measured
101-250147$1.53measured
251-500244$0.78counter not credible
501-1188668$0.36counter not credible

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open

Median cost per click by band of positions. The five bands inside
              the credible range sit between $1.53 and
              $1.99; the two bands past rank 250 fall
              away and are drawn hatched because their counters are not a
              measurement.

Flat, within a few cents, from the $15,000C top row down to listings paying $24C. Across every band the counters can be trusted, the median cost of a click moves by $0.46C in total.

That is the finding, and it is not the one anybody expected. The intuition about an all-pay auction is that the top is where people overpay for status and the bargains are further down the page. On this board the top was not a premium and the middle was not a discount. Whatever the buyers thought they were competing over, the market priced attention at one rate and charged everybody it.

Below rank 250 the same table appears to collapse into a bargain, and that apparent bargain is not a price at all. It is the subject of the next page.

If the price was the same everywhere, the only thing left to buy was the position. That is what $15,000 was actually spent on.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 6 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

Most clicked is not most expensive

ListingRankPaid Clicks reported
insertchat.com#753$523,960
maxbid.lol#399$1023,868
aurafry.com#425$1023,311
top3.lol#655$517,328
joni.ai#2$14,02814,842
trycodus.com#22$1,30514,620
outrank.so#4$13,00513,209

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open

The $15,000C top row is only 10th on that list. Above it sit five and ten dollar listings from ranks in the hundreds, the highest of them reporting 23,960C clicks. Three of the four are rival bid boards.

What we measured: fourC listings paying five to ten dollars, at ranks between 399C and 753C, reporting more clicks than the top row. What an independent write-up separately reported: the counter appearing to reset hourly.

Inferred, not measured

These counts are not recording human visits, whether through automation or through owners driving their own link. We cannot tell which from the board alone and we do not claim to. What follows either way is that click counts below rank 250 are unusable, so every click figure in this chapter is computed only above that line.

What this changes

Between $1.53C and $1.99C a click, for untargeted traffic that bounces at 75%R after 57R seconds, is not obviously a better deal than buying ads with the same money. If you are considering a listing, price it against your actual cost per click, not against the drama.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 7 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

Chapter seven

Why nobody stopped at one payment

The mechanism has a name, used once here and then dropped: this is an all-pay auction. Everybody pays, only one person wins, and nothing is returned. What follows describes what that does to a buyer rather than what it is called.

What the rules saysWhat it does to a buyer
Losing costs you everything you paidThere is no refund and no expiry. Money spent on a rank you no longer hold is simply gone, which means the cheapest way to protect it is to spend more.
Topping up is cheaper than starting againRe-entering the same URL raises your existing listing and you pay only the difference. The second purchase always feels smaller than the first.
Your raise cannot be matched at the same priceNobody else can take your rank by paying that same difference, so a top-up is safe in a way that a fresh bid is not.
Ties favour whoever got there firstEqual bids keep placement order, so matching a price never beats it. To move you must exceed, which removes the option to hold a line.
First place has its own surchargeTaking the top row costs at least five dollars more than the current leader, not one. The most contested position is the only one with a floor on the step.

O  We read this off the page ourselves. The published rules page, read 23 August 2026. Open

Read together, those five rules describe a position that cannot be held passively. You cannot buy a rank and leave; you can only buy it and then keep deciding, every time somebody passes you, whether the money already spent is worth defending with more.

Compare it with the design that already existed. On frontpage.sh, being outbid pays your money back plus a premium and routes most of the remainder into a shared pool. It is the fairer deal by every measure a buyer would use, and it has taken $1,235O across 297O transactions since it opened, against $181,804R here in four days.

The part that settles it is in its own activity log. The last square changed hands on 8 July 2026O, which is 42O days before outbid.lol launched, and nothing moved on it during the wave either. A million people spent four days looking at pay-to-rank boards and the better-designed one recorded no activity at all.

That is not an argument that the fairer design failed because it was fair. It is an argument that permanence is the product. A refund would have removed the drama, and the drama was the entire distribution.

What this changes

If you are buying, the number that matters is not the price of the rank. It is the price of the rank plus every top-up you will make when someone passes you, and there is no rule anywhere that caps that. Decide your ceiling before the first payment, because the design is built so that you will not want to decide it afterwards.

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 7 All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026

What the board remembers

Nobody published a bid history and we did not reconstruct one. What we have is the board as it came to rest, which turns out to be enough: the rules force every fight to leave a mark in the spacing of the rows.

96C pairs of neighbouring listings sit exactly one dollar apart, which is the minimum step. Each pair is somebody who looked at the row above and paid the least that would move them past it.

Eight companies stopped within $8 of each other

ListingRankPaid
fiber.so#29$1,029
prelint.com#30$1,028
neocam.app#31$1,027
ranked.ai#32$1,025
limestonedigital.com#33$1,024
overskill.com#34$1,023
startglobal.co#35$1,022
capitalgurus.com#36$1,021

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open

Eight companies arrived at almost the same number and all stopped there. That is not eight independent valuations landing in one place by chance. It is a price that felt like a limit, reached by eight buyers in turn.

The same shape, further up and further down

ListingsPacked between Who
5$3,125 to $3,137lathire.com, PumpFunCoin on X and others
5$1,280 to $1,306myworkoutlogs.com, trycodus.com and others
4$600 to $603nextbrand.com, doomers.ai and others
4$500 to $502auraplusplus.com, outbid.immo and others

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open

$43,051 is what the top three paid between them for a position only one can hold. Two are paying to be second and third.
Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 8 23 August 2026

Chapter eight

What $15,000 actually bought

The purchase taken apart into what a buyer could plausibly have wanted: search value, traffic, and evidence that either turned into anything.

Search value: none, and this is checkable

Every outbound listing link on the board carries rel="sponsored noopener noreferrer" and appends a tracking parameter. We checked all fifty links on the first page and all fifty carry it. A sponsored link passes no ranking value by design. This is a paid traffic placement, not a backlink, and no amount of spend changes that.

Worth stating plainly because a visible share of the board is SEO tooling that should know. One listing in the top fifty sells "11 dofollow backlinks in one checkout." It bought a sponsored one.

Traffic: real, and thin

$1.30C a click is a defensible price in isolation. What arrives at the other end is untargeted, bounces at 75%R, and stays 57R seconds on the site it came from. Nobody clicking a leaderboard row is looking for a particular product.

What buyers say they got

ListingPaidClicks Reported publicly
1milllionpixels.com$4547564,000 people ... $29k in one dayO
crowdreply.io$12,7116,4586,550+ clicks, 1,800 signups, $50k/mo pipelineO
outrank.so$13,00513,20953 trials that would not exist otherwiseO
trycomp.ai$10,00012,67530% win rate ... LTV $40,000+ expectedO

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. The four the board shows under "From the people who took #1", read 24 August 2026; each mark opens the post. Paid and clicks are ours, at hour 89. Every reported figure is the buyer's own, none audited. Open

Two quote clicks. crowdreply.io lands where the board does, more than 6,550R against 6,458C. 1milllionpixels.com does not: 64,000R against 475C, a factor of 135C. Past the click, nothing here is auditable.

<a href="https://see.io/?utm_source=outbid" target="_blank" rel="sponsored noopener noreferrer" aria-label="Open see.io · see your idea live">

O  We read this off the page ourselves. The top row's link, read off the live board on 24 August 2026. All 50 listing links on the first page carry the same rel; none carries rel="nofollow". The only outbound links on the page without it are his own analytics dashboards and his own product in the footer. Open

Part II  /  The numbers Chapter 8 23 August 2026

Row 1,188 of 1,188

The board is sorted by price, so the last row is the cheapest listing on it. On the day we captured it, that row was supastarter.dev, at $1C: the Next.js starter kit Jonathan Wilke sells to other founders. His own product, on his own leaderboard, in last place, below the minimum anyone else could ever pay.

That is what the board says on day four, and read on its own it says the wrong thing. The screenshot inside his launch post says what happened.

The same listing, at 23:08 on 19 August

The outbid.lol board at launch: one listing, supastarter.dev, at
              number one for one dollar, under a headline offering rank one for
              two dollars.
From the image inside the launch post itself. Open the post
#1 of 1Its rank at launch
$1IWhat he paid
$2IMinimum for everyone else
73IVisitors, prior 24h

The board went live with a single row and the row was his. His listing sat in the position being sold, at half the price he had just set as the floor, and he was the only person alive who could pay it. Under it ran one line of copy: Will you take #1 when this site goes viral?

He did not place his product at the bottom of the board. He placed it at the top and asked to be beaten. Over four days 1,187C companies paid to climb past it, and the descent from row one to row 1,188C is the whole of the business.

By day four the position he seeded for $1C was being held for $15,000C: 15,000C times the money for the same slot, ninety hours apart.

What this changes

Read Part II back through this row and the shape changes. $181,804 arrived because 1,188 companies competed for a position occupied, from the first second, by the product of the man collecting the money. An empty leaderboard cannot be sold as a leaderboard. He solved that with one listing and one dollar.

Part III  /  What came after Chapter 9 24 August 2026

Chapter nine

254 copies and what they earned

Three registries counted the imitations on the same day and disagreed, which is itself the finding: nobody could keep up. outoutbid.lol had 254O on 23 August and 394O the next morning. They disagree about the money too.

BoardWhat it is outoutbid.loloutbid.fyi
outbid.lolthe original$126,157$179,000
1milllionpixelsthe 2005 format, revivednot listed$30,000
lamborghini.lola share of a real car's wrap$25,000not listed
WARMAPbid on countries of a world map$3,448$3,000
topapp.lolthe first clone, publicly blessed$3,067$3,000
SaaSBidsame idea, narrower$1,810below the top thirty

O  We read this off the page ourselves. Both columns read on 24 August 2026 within minutes of each other, off each registry's own ranking. Neither is audited. Open

Two directories measuring the same genre, reading the same boards on the same afternoon, cannot agree on which board is second, and the row every write-up quotes is days out of date on one of them.

Open the car and it is not what the table implies. lamborghini.lol sells shares of the wrap on one real vehicle and has one sponsor, holding 12.5%O for $25,000O against a $200,000O target it is still $175,000C short of. Miss the target and every backer is refunded in full. Nobody has been outbid and the money is not yet kept.

78%C of every dollar in the genre sits with the original, on the only registry that publishes a total for the whole genre: $179,000O of $230,000O across 262O boards.

The purest illustration is the registry itself. outoutbid.lol, which catalogues all 394 boards, has a first place held for $8O. Nine rows totalling $37C, each priced exactly a dollar under the row above, which is what a leaderboard looks like when nobody is fighting over it.

What this changes

The mechanic is a database table sorted by an integer column, cloned within hours by people with the same tools, and reproducing it reproduced none of the result. If you are reading this to build the next one, that table is your honest distribution of outcomes and the median row in it is zero. Note also what establishing that took: two registries, neither trustworthy without opening the boards behind it.

Part III  /  What came after Chapter 10 2005 and 2026

Chapter ten

The 2005 version of this story

The Million Dollar Homepage sold a million pixels at a dollar each and made $1,037,100R. The rhyme is close enough to be uncomfortable, including the month of the year.

Million Dollar Homepageoutbid.lol
FounderAlex Tew, 21, student, WiltshireJonathan Wilke, 29, indie hacker, Germany
Launched26 August 200519 August 2026
Unit solda 10 by 10 pixel block, $100a rank, $5 and up
Gross$1,037,100$181,804 at day four
Time to itfour and a half monthsfour days
Endingthe last 1,000 pixels auctioned on eBay for $38,100, 11 January 2006still running

R  Published by the site or the founder, not audited. 2005 figures from the public record of the Million Dollar Homepage. Every one of them was checked against it again on 24 August 2026. Open

Same shape, compressed roughly thirtyfold. What took Tew a season of press cycles took Wilke one post, because the distribution layer changed and the mechanic did not.

The copycat pattern is identical too. Tew, writing while it was happening, said the imitators popped up almost immediately; now there are hundreds of Web sites selling pixels, that they carried very little advertising, and that the idea only works once and relies on novelty.s Twenty-one years later that is the finding of chapter nine, in the same words.

And the detail that closes the loop: many of the pixel blocks bought on the Million Dollar Homepage were bought by its own copycats. The imitators advertised on the original rather than building traffic of their own. Today the original board carries a live category called Leaderboards and Attention Markets holding $4,853C across 97C listings, which is clone boards buying placement on the thing they cloned.

And the afterlife, which is testable

By 2017, of 2,816R links on the Million Dollar Homepage, 547R were dead and 489R redirected somewhere else. By April 2019 the BBC put the share suffering link rot at about 40%R, and the page was still taking several thousand viewers a day. It survives as a graveyard, but it survives, and a buyer from 2005 can still point at the thing they bought.

outbid.lol will not get even that. Its links are sponsored, they carry tracking parameters, and a rank is a live database value rather than a permanent pixel. When the board stops being interesting, nothing remains of a purchase at all.

Part IV  /  What we can and cannot say Chapter 11 23 to 24 August 2026

Chapter eleven

The claims we could not verify

Everything here rests on counters published by the person who benefits from them, plus one capture of our own. This page separates the two and lists where our own reading was wrong.

ClaimWhoseCheckableWhat we did
Visitors and revenue countersThe site's own, unauditedNoTaken as reported. Our own check, the sum of all live bids, matches the published revenue to within $16. His day three totals sit inside a screenshot and are marked I: the link proves he published the picture.
Click counts by rankThe site's ownNoDiscarded below rank 250, where four listings paying $5 to $10 beat the $15,000 top row. The line is where the counter fails in aggregate, not where it starts: flopay.com at #8 cannot be right either.
Manipulation accusationsRaised on X during the runPartlyNo evidence of faked bids. Click counters that cannot be believed. Different accusations, not merged.
The rule change and who was harmedA named complaint, his own repliesYesConfirmed by the board: 212 listings sit at a price not purchasable since the minimum moved.
A new product every minuteHis own post on day threeYes, and it failsMeasured between hour 89 and hour 90: six listings, one every ten minutes.
Times, reach and likes in Part IOur own earlier readingYes, and eight were wrongTimes are decoded from post ids, which moved five and removed a reach figure taken from a neighbour. Launch likes were a concatenated scrape: 11,300 where the label reads 1,341. The analytics post was printed at 349 likes and holds 34, which inverted chapter 3. Vercel pausing the site is dated 22 August, not day one. All printed wrong first.
What the copies earnedTwo rival registriesNo, they contradict each otherThey cannot agree on which board is second, and one reads the original days stale. We print both columns. Three figures taken from one were wrong: one by a factor of three, one refundable, one unsourced.
frontpage.sh launched a month earlierWidely repeatedYes, and it understates itIts log was still transacting in June and stopped on 8 July. We state no launch date because the log does not give one.
What buyers got for the moneyFour buyers, on their own accountsAt the click, yesWe printed that none had reported anything; wrong, the earliest is 21 August. Of the two quoting clicks, crowdreply.io matches the board and 1milllionpixels.com is out by 135x.
Net revenue after fees and taxNowhereNoPayment fees, hosting overage and German tax are unknown. Every revenue figure here is gross.

C  Computed by us from the full capture of the board. The last column is ours, recomputed on every build from all 1,188 rows of the capture. The sources being weighed are named per row. Open

What this changes

A case study that only quotes the figures supporting it is an advertisement with footnotes.

Part IV  /  What we can and cannot say Chapter 12 24 August 2026

Chapter twelve

What we would do with this

Should you build one

Only if you already have the audience, and then the board is not the point. 254O people built the same thing inside four days and the median one earned nothing. What could not be copied was nineteen thousand followers who had spent two days watching him look for something to build, and a willingness to post the outage, the broken analytics and the hosting bill as they happened.

The transferable part is on pages 3 and 4: the seven post ladder before the payload, and answering the first accusation in two minutes in public. Those work without a leaderboard.

Should you buy a place on one

Only against your real cost per click, and only with a ceiling decided before the first payment. The credible range is around $1.59C a click for untargeted traffic that bounces at 75%R after 57R seconds. There is no search value: the links are sponsored, verified in the markup. And the rules are built so that the first payment is rarely the last.

Buyers do now report results, and the board displays four of them. Two quote a click count that can be laid against the board's own counter for the same listing: one matches, and one is out by a factor of 135C. Everything past the click, in all four, is the buyer's own arithmetic about money that has not arrived yet.

Method, and the file

The board was captured page by page through a browser on 23 August 2026, hour 89, giving all 1,188C rows with rank, price, category and reported clicks.s The board sits behind a Vercel bot challenge, so a plain fetch returns a 429 checkpoint page rather than the board and any refresh has to go back through a browser that can execute it. Times in Part I were decoded from post ids. Figures published by the site are labelled as such throughout.

The capture ships with this document as leaderboard-full-2026-08-23.json. Every computed figure in Part II can be reproduced from it, including the ones that disagree with the coverage.

The capture, the arithmetic and the charts are scripts, and the research and drafting were done with Claude. Stated because the rest of this document states everything else, and because it changes nothing you can check: computed figures come from the file above, reported ones open their source, and chapter 11 lists what neither could settle.

About this research

Researched, computed and set by Dmytro Klymentiev. The capture this is built on ships with it, so Part II can be recomputed rather than believed, including the figures that disagree with the coverage.

This board gets read again. Day 7, then 14, 30 and 90, on the same method and against the same file, because the interesting question about a wave is not how high it went. Those readings go out from klymentiev.com.