Case study / outbid.lolStill running as you read this24 August 2026
A developer in Germany spent $1.80 on a domain
and made $181,804 in four days.
The post that started it was unremarkable: a developer saying, on a Tuesday
evening, that he had bought a domain. This document works out how that
became the number above, and whether it was luck or something repeatable.
$1.80Domain
3h 33mTeaser to launch
1,229,731Visitors
$181,804Paid in
Jonathan Wilke sells a Next.js starter kit to other founders and had about
19,000R followers on X. He registered the $1.80R domain,
built a single page while making dinner, and posted seven times in three and
a half hours before switching it on. It has taken
$181,804R from 1,229,731R visitors since.
The page does one thing. It lists websites in a ranked column and your
position is whatever you paid. No auction close, no refund, nothing to win
except the row you are standing on. By the fourth day 1,188C
companies had paid, the top row cost $15,000C, and roughly
254O copies of the site had appeared, 394O by
the next morning.
Check it yourself before you read another line
The siteoutbid.lolThe live board: ranks, prices and a running visitor
counter, public, no account needed.
So how did he actually do it? Here is the whole thing, minute by
minute, from three and a half hours before anyone could buy.
Read to 24 August 2026. The counters have moved since and
will again. This is not a scoreboard: it takes apart the mechanic, and the
mechanic does not move.
OObserved. We read it off the page
ourselves. The mark opens what we read.
RReported. Published by the site or the
founder, not audited. The mark opens the claim.
CCalculated. Computed by us from
the full capture. The mark opens the method.
IImage. Read off a screenshot he posted,
not off a page. The mark opens the post.
Case study / outbid.lolContents24 August 2026
What you are holding
Twenty-two pages, four parts, and one thing that exists nowhere else.
Between 19 and 23 August 2026 we captured the whole board: all 1,188C rows,
with rank, price, category and reported clicks. Part II is built entirely on
that file, and the file ships with this document.
Part I What happened
The story, fast, by the clock. No interpretation until Part II.
The totals on page 1 are why anyone opens a document like this and the
least useful thing in it: true on 24 August 2026, already wrong. What does not
go stale is the mechanic. Part I is the post sequence that built the
audience; Part II is what the board says about who paid and what they got.
Chapter 11 lists what we could not verify and what we printed wrong.
Part I / What happenedChapter 119 August 2026
Chapter one
Three hours, thirty-three minutes
From an idea posted to an empty timeline to a live product taking money.
Each post quotes the one before it, so the whole run reads as a single
visible ladder instead of separate announcements.
19:35Posts the seed, with nothing built yet. I have a very simple idea that I'm going to build and launch tonight. Stay tuned.8,800views41 likes
20:14Posts a video of himself building it. Building while making dinner. Who said men can't multitask10,995views21 likes
20:18Names the stack in public. Actually my first project to be hosted on @cursor_ai Origin. Let's see what this thing can do.28,329views31 likes, 8 reposts
22:25Then hands the audience a decision to make, which is another reason to come back. Should I do a live stream when I launch?2,762views
22:55Last post before the payload, and the second most seen of the whole evening. Almost there... Just checking the Polar web hook setup312,724views24 likes
23:08Live. Aaaaaaand we're live! outbid.lol. No ads. No API keys. No revenue sharing. Just outbid your competitors to rank #1 and consider marketing done for today3,127,871views1,341 likes, 749 reposts
Times are CEST, his local time. Every time here was decoded from the id of
the post itself, which makes it exact to the second rather than read off a
label. Both the time and the reach figure open the post they came from.
Reach was read on 23 August 2026 and only ever grows: the launch post
has passed 3.3 million views since. Recovering the ids corrected four of these
times, one by 72 minutes, and one reach figure that had been taken from the
wrong post.
What this changes
The ladder is the mechanism, not the product. Seven posts across three and
a half hours meant the launch landed on an audience already watching, and
the post before the payload alone reached 312,724 people. If you copy one
thing here, copy the run-up, not the leaderboard.
Part I / What happenedChapter 219 to 20 August 2026
Chapter two
Launch night
Two and a half hours in which it took its first money, absorbed an
accusation of fraud, and acquired the story it would be told with all week.
23:12Four minutes in, he sets a public break-even bar of three dollars. Every sale after this one arrives with a scoreboard attached. If we can make it to $3 this project is profitable. Got the domain for $1.804,807views16 likes
23:26@jessethanley The first substantial reaction to the launch is hostile, eighteen minutes after it goes live. Scammy campaign.28,274views120 likes
23:28He answers in ninety-three seconds, in public, without heat. The argument becomes distribution instead of killing the post. What is scammy about this?24,447views12 likes
23:55@designorant A follower who tried the same thing twenty years ago, and made two dollars, hands him the frame every later write-up would use.28,720views50 likes
00:01His reply, which is the moment the story acquires its title. Thanks for the boost! What was that million dollar homepage about?23,062views10 likes
What this changes
The hostile reply arrived eighteen minutes in and was answered in
ninety-three seconds, publicly and without defensiveness. The two
posts together carry 52,721 views, more than any post of the evening
except the launch itself. If you launch something that takes money in public, the
first accusation is not a crisis to manage quietly. It is free
distribution, and only if you answer it fast.
Part I / What happenedChapter 220 August 2026, after midnight
The customers were the channel
Between those rows first place changed hands 6 times, and this
is the part that matters: he posted every flip as its own tweet, tagging
the company that had just taken the lead.
A company that has just paid to be first, then named in public, reposts it.
Their audience sees it. Some of them bid. Every purchase generated its
own advertisement, paid for by the buyer and distributed through the
buyer's own following. The board needed no marketing budget because the
people buying from it were the marketing.
Nothing in that loop requires a leaderboard. It requires a purchase that is
public, a winner who can be named, and a seller willing to narrate the
change out loud while it is still happening. The leaderboard supplies all
three cheaply, which is why it worked, but it is the loop that is worth
copying and it is not the part anybody copied.
01:10Names the model that built it. Try Grok 4.6. I think it's one of the best models in terms of design right now. It just built me outbid.lol
01:13Narrates another change of first place, in the same voice he would use for a football match. And screenies.app steals position #1. How long will it last?
Times are CEST and were decoded from the ids of the posts themselves. Neither
of these two carries a public view count.
What this changes
Two hundred and fifty-four boards copied the mechanic within four days and the
median one earned nothing. What none of them copied was this: an audience
already watching, and a founder narrating every transaction by name while it
happened. If you take one thing out of Part I, take the narration. It works
without a leaderboard and it costs nothing.
Part I / What happenedChapter 320 August 2026
Chapter three
The first 24 hours
The counter rows carry no minute stamps, because those posts were never
recovered. The breakages under them were, and run in the order their ids
give. The rest is his posting, verbatim.
The counter
Visitors
Marker
What he posted
3,000
in under twelve hours
Top bids cross $200, and he ships the first rule change: any rank can now be claimed for a dollar more.
4,500
$1,400 taken
Built outbid.lol yesterday night as a fun project and the site got 4.5k visitors in the first 12 hours and made $1.4k revenue
10,000
within twelve hours
outbid.lol is about to hit 10k visitors within 12 hours since launch
17,000
$4,000 taken
Actually we are at 17k visitors and $4k revenue by now
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own posts, 20 August 2026, verbatim. Open
O We read this off the page ourselves. Read off each post on 24 August 2026, from the label X attaches to its counters rather than the rounded figure it prints. Engagement only grows, so these are floors. An earlier draft gave the analytics post 349 likes; it has 34. Chapter 11 lists the correction. Open
What this changes
He posted the outage, the broken analytics and the switch as they
happened, and the measured answer is that none of it travelled. These
are the weakest posts of his day. Three of the four sit between
9,612 and 23,233 views with 33 to 69 likes. The
fourth reached 119,840 and still took only 102,
and it is a reply to the founder of the analytics company he had just
broken, so it borrowed that audience. His summary the same evening took
793,000 views and 2,000 likes. Narrating
the failures bought no reach. It bought the thing that makes reach worth
having: the account telling you it was going well was the same one telling
you when it was not.
Part I / What happenedChapter 320 August 2026
The money events
Event
His words
Reach
A $1,000 bid
WTF someone just spend $1000 to get to the top of
outbid.lol
43,000 views 272 reposts
An offer to buy it
Someone actually offered me $100k for
https://outbid.lol He declined.
347,000 views 446 reposts
The second rule ships
You can now up your previous bid to get back to the top,
by simply paying the difference
46,000 views 710 likes
He promotes his first copy
Instead of fighting the first clone, he amplifies it:
@julesvcode got inspired by my idea and made a version that focused on
mobile apps! Great job
24,000 views 824 likes
24 hours
His own summary: 200,000+ visitors, $21,499 made, 1,500+ new
followers, analytics broken, $100k offer declined, 3 copycats already
launched.s
793,000 views 2,000 likes
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own posts, 20 August 2026. Reach figures read off each post. Open
And the part the first buyers remember
The site did not start as an auction. At launch you bought a spot and, as
the earliest buyers understood it, that spot was yours. Once it went viral
the model was rewritten so that anyone could displace anyone, with the
money going to the founder. The people who had bought under the old
rules were never compensated.
The complaint came from @postsbyrhys on
20 Augusts: Originally it was buy your spot and
you're locked in with that spot. Now it's someone else can buy that spot
(and he gets all the money). Changed it overnight once it got viral. Guy
never grandfathered his original buyers.
His two replies do not agree with each other. One accepts it:
I'm sorry, I should have been more transparent with this! The other
denies the premise: Not really, it's still about outbidding for the
rank.
The fossil evidence is still on the board.
212C
listings sit at $2I, a price that has not
been purchasable since the minimum moved to
$5O. Those are the rows bought under the original
rules.
What this changes
The rule change is the most transferable warning in this document. It
cost him nothing at the time, because the people harmed had already paid
and had no leverage, and it is the only thing his own audience is still
bringing up days later. If you change the terms of something people have
already bought, the cheap moment to make them whole is immediately and the
expensive one is never.
Part I / What happenedChapter 423 August 2026, hour 89
Chapter four
Where it stands on day four
Read directly off the site and off his own public traffic dashboard, eighty
nine hours after launch.s These are the numbers every other
write-up ends on.
1,229,731Visitors
$181,804Paid in
1,188Listings
$15,000Top row
His day three post put it at 1,147,000I visitors,
first place at $14,013I,
$132,000I taken,
867I products and
190,000I outbound clicks. Thirty hours later the
board had grown by another
$49,804C and
another 321C listings,
and first place had moved to $15,000C.
I Read off a screenshot he posted. The text of that post is
four words, Update on day 3. All five figures above are inside the
image beside it, so what the link proves is that he published the picture,
not that anyone checked the numbers in it.
Open
That is the headline, and it is where the coverage stops. The rest of this
page is the part nobody else printed.
The same day, the other direction
Signal
Reading
What it means
Visitors, last 24 hours
66,900
Down 23% against the previous 24 hours, on his own
dashboard
Bounce rate
75%
Up 6 points. The traffic arriving is less interested than
the traffic before it
Time on site
0m 57s
Long enough to scroll a leaderboard, not to read one
Concurrent visitors
656
Against 1,080 reported by an independent write-up at hour 66
Traffic source
Social
Almost entirely X, direct and social referral. Organic
search is a sliver, so there is no floor under the wave
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. His own public traffic dashboard, read 23 August 2026 at hour 89. Open
What this changes
Every figure in the first row of this page is cumulative, which means it
can only go up and cannot fall even after the thing stops working. The
numbers that describe the present all point the same way, and they point
down. When you read a launch reported in totals, ask what the last
twenty-four hours did.
Part I / What happenedChapter 420 to 24 August 2026
O We read this off the page ourselves. Hours 89 and 90 measured directly by us, one hour apart. Earlier rows derived from his own posted totals. Open
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. Days two to five are his public DataFast dashboard, read on 24 August 2026 off the chart it draws rather than from an export, so treat every bar as good to a per cent or so. Day one is his own claim and is drawn hollow: his analytics recorded 900 visitors that day. The ring on day four is ours, measured off the board. Open
We took a full reading of the board at hour 89 and another at hour 90, so
the rate of change is measured rather than inferred from totals, and
two instruments that share no code agree. For day four his own
dashboard averages 2,694R visitors an hour and our reading gives
2,604C, 3.3%C apart. That is 69%C below day one. The one day
that cannot be checked either way is day one itself: it is the day he
posted breaking his analytics, and his counter holds 900R visitors for
it against a summary claiming two hundred thousand.
One of his claims is checkable and does not hold. On day three he wrote
that a new product was being added roughly every minute.sMeasured between hour 89 and hour 90, six listings were added. That
is one every ten minutes. Either the rate fell tenfold in thirty hours, or
it was never a minute.
What this changes
A cumulative counter on a launch page is a ratchet: it is designed so the
number can never go down, which is exactly why it stops describing anything
once the wave passes. Before you decide this worked, take two readings an
hour apart and divide.
Part II / The numbersChapter 5All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
Chapter five
Who actually paid
Everything in this part is computed from our own capture of the whole board:
every row, its price, its category, its reported clicks. That file ships with
this document, so the figures can be recomputed rather than believed.
The number in every headline is $181,804R, and it
is the least informative true thing you can say about this board. A
leaderboard looks like a crowd. This one is not one.
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open
Ten listings paid $102,084C of the
$181,820C on the board. The other
1,178C paid for the rest.
Run it from the other end and it gets worse. 639C listings,
54%C of the board, paid five dollars or
less, contributing $2,506C between them, which is
1.4%C of the total.
More than half the names here are, financially, decoration.
The median bid is $5C and the mean is
$153C. When the mean is thirty times the
median you are not looking at a market but at a handful of large purchases
with a long tail of participation attached.
Part II / The numbersChapter 5All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
What a budget buys, today
Equal bids keep their placement order, so a new bid lands below every
listing already sitting at that price. At the entry price that is not
a detail.
You pay
You land at
Which is
$5
#948
page 19 of 24
$10
#429
page 9 of 24
$25
#245
page 5 of 24
$50
#169
page 4 of 24
$100
#117
page 3 of 24
$250
#76
page 2 of 24
$500
#48
page 1 of 24
$1,000
#37
page 1 of 24
$3,000
#18
page 1 of 24
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open
#948is where five dollars puts you, out of 1,188. The entry
price does not buy visibility, it buys page nineteen of twenty-four.
Where the money came from
Category
Dollars
Share of all revenue
AI Agents & Infrastructure
$47,693
26.2%
SEO & AI Visibility
$31,714
17.4%
Crypto, Web3 & Investing
$19,310
10.6%
Business, Finance & Legal
$11,086
6.1%
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open
What this changes
44% of all revenue came from two categories, AI infrastructure
and SEO tooling, which sell to the same person: a founder already sold on
buying distribution. The board did not create that demand, it collected one
that was there. The question for the next one is whether that buyer is
already in your following.
Part II / The numbersChapter 6All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
Chapter six
The price of being first
The board reports a click count on every listing. Put those against what each
listing paid and the question becomes answerable: does spending more actually
buy proportionally more attention, or does the top of the board pay a premium
for the status of being there.
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. 29 listings report no click count and cannot sit on a click axis, so they are not plotted. The rank 250 line is ours, not the site's: the next page is why. Open
Across rank 1 to 250, clicks rise as spend to the power of
0.93C, with an r squared of
0.65C. An exponent of one would mean
perfectly proportional. In plain terms: roughly one dollar, one click,
the whole way up the board. The median listing in that range paid
$1.59C per click, and that figure barely moves between the
$15,000C top row and a listing at
$24C.
This is not what anyone expects, and the next page is where that gets
argued. The variance underneath the average is the story here:
fuellog.ai paid $51C less than
flopay.com and reported 86C times the clicks,
1,805C against 21C. They
sit two rows apart, at #10C and
#8C, and nothing within two rows of
flopay.com reports under 426C. The rank
250 line marks where the counter fails in aggregate, not where it
starts.
Part II / The numbersChapter 6All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
The board charged everyone the same
Positions
Listings
Median cost per click
Status
1-10
10
$1.62
measured
11-25
15
$1.99
measured
26-50
25
$1.55
measured
51-100
50
$1.75
measured
101-250
147
$1.53
measured
251-500
244
$0.78
counter not credible
501-1188
668
$0.36
counter not credible
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open
Flat, within a few cents, from the $15,000C top row
down to listings paying $24C. Across
every band the counters can be trusted, the median cost of a click moves by
$0.46C in total.
That is the finding, and it is not the one anybody expected. The intuition
about an all-pay auction is that the top is where people overpay for status
and the bargains are further down the page. On this board the top was not
a premium and the middle was not a discount. Whatever the buyers thought
they were competing over, the market priced attention at one rate and
charged everybody it.
Below rank 250 the same table appears to collapse into a bargain, and
that apparent bargain is not a price at all. It is the subject of the next
page.
If the price was the same everywhere, the only thing left to buy
was the position. That is what $15,000 was actually
spent on.
Part II / The numbersChapter 6All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows of the board, captured 23 August 2026. Recomputable from the dataset that ships with this document. Open
The $15,000C top row is only 10th on that
list. Above it sit five and ten dollar listings from ranks in the
hundreds, the highest of them reporting
23,960C clicks.
Three of the four are rival bid boards.
What we measured: fourC listings paying five to
ten dollars, at ranks between 399C and 753C,
reporting more clicks than the top row. What an independent write-up
separately reported: the counter appearing to reset hourly.
Inferred, not measured
These counts are not recording human visits, whether through automation
or through owners driving their own link. We cannot tell which from the
board alone and we do not claim to. What follows either way is that
click counts below rank 250 are unusable, so every click figure in this
chapter is computed only above that line.
What this changes
Between $1.53C and
$1.99C a click, for untargeted
traffic that bounces at 75%R after
57R seconds, is not obviously a better deal
than buying ads with the same money. If you are considering a listing,
price it against your actual cost per click, not against the drama.
Part II / The numbersChapter 7All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
Chapter seven
Why nobody stopped at one payment
The mechanism has a name, used once here and then dropped: this is an all-pay
auction. Everybody pays, only one person wins, and nothing is returned. What
follows describes what that does to a buyer rather than what it is called.
There is no refund and no expiry. Money spent on a rank you no longer hold is simply gone, which means the cheapest way to protect it is to spend more.
Topping up is cheaper than starting again
Re-entering the same URL raises your existing listing and you pay only the difference. The second purchase always feels smaller than the first.
Your raise cannot be matched at the same price
Nobody else can take your rank by paying that same difference, so a top-up is safe in a way that a fresh bid is not.
Ties favour whoever got there first
Equal bids keep placement order, so matching a price never beats it. To move you must exceed, which removes the option to hold a line.
First place has its own surcharge
Taking the top row costs at least five dollars more than the current leader, not one. The most contested position is the only one with a floor on the step.
O We read this off the page ourselves. The published rules page, read 23 August 2026. Open
Read together, those five rules describe a position that cannot be held
passively. You cannot buy a rank and leave; you can only buy it and then
keep deciding, every time somebody passes you, whether the money already
spent is worth defending with more.
Compare it with the design that already existed. On
frontpage.sh, being outbid pays your money back plus a premium and routes
most of the remainder into a shared pool. It is the fairer deal by every
measure a buyer would use, and it has taken
$1,235O across
297O transactions since it opened, against
$181,804R here in four days.
The part that settles it is in its own activity log. The last square
changed hands on 8 July 2026O, which is
42O days before outbid.lol launched,
and nothing moved on it during the wave either. A million people spent four
days looking at pay-to-rank boards and the better-designed one recorded no
activity at all.
That is not an argument that the fairer design failed because it was fair.
It is an argument that permanence is the product. A refund would
have removed the drama, and the drama was the entire distribution.
What this changes
If you are buying, the number that matters is not the price of the rank.
It is the price of the rank plus every top-up you will make when someone
passes you, and there is no rule anywhere that caps that. Decide your
ceiling before the first payment, because the design is built so that you
will not want to decide it afterwards.
Part II / The numbersChapter 7All 1,188 rows, 23 August 2026
What the board remembers
Nobody published a bid history and we did not reconstruct one. What we
have is the board as it came to rest, which turns out to be enough: the
rules force every fight to leave a mark in the spacing of the rows.
96C pairs of neighbouring listings sit exactly one
dollar apart, which is the minimum step. Each pair is somebody who
looked at the row above and paid the least that would move them past it.
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open
Eight companies arrived at almost the same number and all stopped there.
That is not eight independent valuations landing in one place by chance.
It is a price that felt like a limit, reached by eight buyers in turn.
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. All 1,188 rows, captured 23 August 2026. Open
$43,051is what the top three paid between them for a position only
one can hold. Two are paying to be second and third.
Part II / The numbersChapter 823 August 2026
Chapter eight
What $15,000 actually bought
The purchase taken apart into what a buyer could plausibly have wanted:
search value, traffic, and evidence that either turned into anything.
Search value: none, and this is checkable
Every outbound listing link on the board carries
rel="sponsored noopener noreferrer" and appends a
tracking parameter. We checked all fifty links on the first page and all
fifty carry it. A sponsored link passes no ranking value by design.
This is a paid traffic placement, not a backlink, and no amount of spend
changes that.
Worth stating plainly because a visible share of the board is SEO tooling
that should know. One listing in the top fifty sells "11 dofollow backlinks
in one checkout." It bought a sponsored one.
Traffic: real, and thin
$1.30C a click is a defensible price in
isolation. What arrives at the other end is untargeted, bounces at
75%R, and stays
57R seconds on the site it came from. Nobody
clicking a leaderboard row is looking for a particular product.
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. The four the board shows under "From the people who took #1", read 24 August 2026; each mark opens the post. Paid and clicks are ours, at hour 89. Every reported figure is the buyer's own, none audited. Open
Two quote clicks. crowdreply.io lands where the board
does, more than 6,550R against 6,458C.
1milllionpixels.com does not: 64,000R against
475C, a factor of
135C. Past the click, nothing here
is auditable.
<a href="https://see.io/?utm_source=outbid"
target="_blank"
rel="sponsored noopener noreferrer"
aria-label="Open see.io · see your idea live">
O We read this off the page ourselves. The top row's link, read off the live board on 24 August 2026. All 50 listing links on the first page carry the same rel; none carries rel="nofollow". The only outbound links on the page without it are his own analytics dashboards and his own product in the footer. Open
Part II / The numbersChapter 823 August 2026
Row 1,188 of 1,188
The board is sorted by price, so the last row is the cheapest listing on
it. On the day we captured it, that row was
supastarter.dev, at
$1C: the Next.js starter
kit Jonathan Wilke sells to other founders. His own product, on his own
leaderboard, in last place, below the minimum anyone else could ever pay.
That is what the board says on day four, and read on its own it says the
wrong thing. The screenshot inside his launch post says what happened.
The same listing, at 23:08 on 19 August
From the image inside the launch post itself.
Open the post
The board went live with a single row and the row was his. His listing sat
in the position being sold, at half the price he had just set as the floor,
and he was the only person alive who could pay it. Under it ran one line of
copy: Will you take #1 when this site goes viral?
He did not place his product at the bottom of the board. He placed it at
the top and asked to be beaten. Over four days
1,187C companies paid to climb past it, and the descent
from row one to row 1,188C is the whole of the business.
By day four the position he seeded for $1C was
being held for $15,000C:
15,000C times the money for the same
slot, ninety hours apart.
What this changes
Read Part II back through this row and the shape changes.
$181,804 arrived because 1,188 companies
competed for a position occupied, from the first second, by the product of
the man collecting the money. An empty leaderboard cannot be sold as a
leaderboard. He solved that with one listing and one dollar.
Part III / What came afterChapter 924 August 2026
Chapter nine
254 copies and what they earned
Three registries counted the imitations on the same day and disagreed, which
is itself the finding: nobody could keep up. outoutbid.lol had
254O on 23 August and
394O the next morning. They disagree about the
money too.
O We read this off the page ourselves. Both columns read on 24 August 2026 within minutes of each other, off each registry's own ranking. Neither is audited. Open
Two directories measuring the same genre, reading the same boards on the
same afternoon, cannot agree on which board is second, and the row
every write-up quotes is days out of date on one of them.
Open the car and it is not what the table implies. lamborghini.lol sells
shares of the wrap on one real vehicle and has one sponsor, holding
12.5%O for
$25,000O against a
$200,000O target it is still
$175,000C short of.
Miss the target and every backer is refunded in full. Nobody has
been outbid and the money is not yet kept.
78%Cof every dollar in the genre sits with the original, on the
only registry that publishes a total for the whole genre:
$179,000O of
$230,000O across
262O boards.
The purest illustration is the registry itself. outoutbid.lol, which
catalogues all 394 boards, has a first place
held for $8O. Nine rows totalling
$37C, each priced exactly a dollar under the row
above, which is what a leaderboard looks like when nobody is fighting over
it.
What this changes
The mechanic is a database table sorted by an integer column, cloned
within hours by people with the same tools, and reproducing it reproduced
none of the result. If you are reading this to build the next one, that
table is your honest distribution of outcomes and the median row in it is
zero. Note also what establishing that took: two registries, neither
trustworthy without opening the boards behind it.
Part III / What came afterChapter 102005 and 2026
Chapter ten
The 2005 version of this story
The Million Dollar Homepage sold a million pixels at a dollar each and made
$1,037,100R. The rhyme is close enough to be
uncomfortable, including the month of the year.
Million Dollar Homepage
outbid.lol
Founder
Alex Tew, 21, student, Wiltshire
Jonathan Wilke, 29, indie hacker, Germany
Launched
26 August 2005
19 August 2026
Unit sold
a 10 by 10 pixel block, $100
a rank, $5 and up
Gross
$1,037,100
$181,804 at day four
Time to it
four and a half months
four days
Ending
the last 1,000 pixels auctioned on eBay for $38,100, 11 January 2006
still running
R Published by the site or the founder, not audited. 2005 figures from the public record of the Million Dollar Homepage. Every one of them was checked against it again on 24 August 2026. Open
Same shape, compressed roughly thirtyfold. What took Tew a season of press
cycles took Wilke one post, because the distribution layer changed and the
mechanic did not.
The copycat pattern is identical too. Tew, writing while it was
happening, said the imitators popped up almost immediately; now there
are hundreds of Web sites selling pixels, that they carried very little
advertising, and that the idea only works once and relies on
novelty.s Twenty-one years later that is the finding of
chapter nine, in the same words.
And the detail that closes the loop: many of the pixel blocks bought on
the Million Dollar Homepage were bought by its own copycats. The
imitators advertised on the original rather than building traffic of their
own. Today the original board carries a live category called Leaderboards
and Attention Markets holding $4,853C across
97C listings, which is clone boards buying
placement on the thing they cloned.
And the afterlife, which is testable
By 2017, of 2,816R links on the Million Dollar
Homepage, 547R were dead and
489R redirected somewhere else. By April 2019
the BBC put the share suffering link rot at about
40%R, and the page was still taking several
thousand viewers a day. It survives as a graveyard, but it survives, and a
buyer from 2005 can still point at the thing they bought.
outbid.lol will not get even that. Its links are sponsored, they
carry tracking parameters, and a rank is a live database value rather than
a permanent pixel. When the board stops being interesting, nothing remains
of a purchase at all.
Part IV / What we can and cannot sayChapter 1123 to 24 August 2026
Chapter eleven
The claims we could not verify
Everything here rests on counters published by the person who benefits from
them, plus one capture of our own. This page separates the two and lists
where our own reading was wrong.
Claim
Whose
Checkable
What we did
Visitors and revenue counters
The site's own, unaudited
No
Taken as reported. Our own check, the sum of all live bids, matches the published revenue to within $16. His day three totals sit inside a screenshot and are marked I: the link proves he published the picture.
Click counts by rank
The site's own
No
Discarded below rank 250, where four listings paying $5 to $10 beat the $15,000 top row. The line is where the counter fails in aggregate, not where it starts: flopay.com at #8 cannot be right either.
Manipulation accusations
Raised on X during the run
Partly
No evidence of faked bids. Click counters that cannot be believed. Different accusations, not merged.
The rule change and who was harmed
A named complaint, his own replies
Yes
Confirmed by the board: 212 listings sit at a price not purchasable since the minimum moved.
A new product every minute
His own post on day three
Yes, and it fails
Measured between hour 89 and hour 90: six listings, one every ten minutes.
Times, reach and likes in Part I
Our own earlier reading
Yes, and eight were wrong
Times are decoded from post ids, which moved five and removed a reach figure taken from a neighbour. Launch likes were a concatenated scrape: 11,300 where the label reads 1,341. The analytics post was printed at 349 likes and holds 34, which inverted chapter 3. Vercel pausing the site is dated 22 August, not day one. All printed wrong first.
What the copies earned
Two rival registries
No, they contradict each other
They cannot agree on which board is second, and one reads the original days stale. We print both columns. Three figures taken from one were wrong: one by a factor of three, one refundable, one unsourced.
frontpage.sh launched a month earlier
Widely repeated
Yes, and it understates it
Its log was still transacting in June and stopped on 8 July. We state no launch date because the log does not give one.
What buyers got for the money
Four buyers, on their own accounts
At the click, yes
We printed that none had reported anything; wrong, the earliest is 21 August. Of the two quoting clicks, crowdreply.io matches the board and 1milllionpixels.com is out by 135x.
Net revenue after fees and tax
Nowhere
No
Payment fees, hosting overage and German tax are unknown. Every revenue figure here is gross.
C Computed by us from the full capture of the board. The last column is ours, recomputed on every build from all 1,188 rows of the capture. The sources being weighed are named per row. Open
What this changes
A case study that only quotes the figures supporting it is an
advertisement with footnotes.
Part IV / What we can and cannot sayChapter 1224 August 2026
Chapter twelve
What we would do with this
Should you build one
Only if you already have the audience, and then the board is not the
point. 254O people built the same thing inside
four days and the median one earned nothing. What could not be copied was
nineteen thousand followers who had spent two days watching him look for
something to build, and a willingness to post the outage, the broken
analytics and the hosting bill as they happened.
The transferable part is on pages 3 and 4: the seven post ladder before the
payload, and answering the first accusation in two minutes in public.
Those work without a leaderboard.
Should you buy a place on one
Only against your real cost per click, and only with a ceiling decided
before the first payment. The credible range is around $1.59C a
click for untargeted traffic that bounces at
75%R after
57R seconds. There is no search value: the links are
sponsored, verified in the markup. And the rules are built so that the
first payment is rarely the last.
Buyers do now report results, and the board displays four of them. Two
quote a click count that can be laid against the board's own counter for
the same listing: one matches, and one is out by a factor of
135C. Everything past the click, in all four, is the
buyer's own arithmetic about money that has not arrived yet.
Method, and the file
The board was captured page by page through a browser on 23 August 2026,
hour 89, giving all 1,188C rows with rank, price,
category and reported clicks.s The board sits behind a Vercel
bot challenge, so a plain fetch returns a 429 checkpoint page rather than
the board and any refresh has to go back through a browser that can
execute it. Times in Part I were decoded from post ids. Figures published
by the site are labelled as such throughout.
The capture ships with this document as
leaderboard-full-2026-08-23.json. Every computed
figure in Part II can be reproduced from it, including the ones that
disagree with the coverage.
The capture, the arithmetic and the charts are scripts, and the research
and drafting were done with Claude. Stated because the rest of this
document states everything else, and because it changes nothing you can
check: computed figures come from the file above, reported ones open their
source, and chapter 11 lists what neither could settle.
About this research
Researched, computed and set by Dmytro Klymentiev. The capture this
is built on ships with it, so Part II can be recomputed rather than
believed, including the figures that disagree with the coverage.
This board gets read again. Day 7, then 14, 30 and 90, on the same
method and against the same file, because the interesting question about a
wave is not how high it went. Those readings go out from
klymentiev.com.